This blog is about science, pseudoscience, manipulation, magic, and outright lies

Tuesday 8 April 2014

Knowing the map and asking for war

In the Washington Post one could read about a survey where Americans (here used incorrectly as a synonym for U.S. citizen) were asked about what they thought the US should do about the situation in the Ukraine. But they were also asked to show where they thought Ukraine was on a map One interesting correlation that was found in the study of ~2000 people was that the more off you were in placing Ukraine on the map the more likely you were to be for a military intervention. This was significant to 95% according the report.
Any keen critical thinker would at this point consider the question if the correlation reported was the only one that was investigated. Statistical significance is a little bit like the lottery. The odds are poor for one player, and thus a win is significant. But if you are looking for many different correlations in your material this is equal to observing all players in the lottery and find that someone won, not that amazing.
But what is this report telling us? Well one thing it is telling us is that apparently the saying that ”War is God's way of teaching Americans geography” is wrong. Another thing might be that people that are less informed are more sure about their opinion and what action to take. That would be in accordance with the Dunning-Kruger (D-K) effect, although not following from it automatically. The D-K effect tell us that people that don't know something also don't know that they don't know. My guess is that people with fewer doubts are also more likely to support extreme actions. This is as I state a guess, but if their is a research done in this area I would not be surprised if it shows this to be true. Combined with the D-K effect that would imply that less knowledge leads to proposing more risky solutions to problems.

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